Victory at Dabaltsevo Despite New Minsk 2.0 "Ceasefire"
Novorossia won yet another decisive victory this time at Debaltsevo. Appropriately as I write Novorossia is celebrating Defenders of the Fatherland day a holiday that celebrates the fight of of the red army against the nazis. Now their Grandchildren can celebrate yet another victory over the fascists in Kiev. The Debaltsevo (aka Debalcevo) Cauldron originated last fall as the Debaltsevo Bridgehead a massively fortified position that aimed to disrupt communication between Donetsk and Lugansk they hoped that many NAF lives would be wasted trying to recapture it and that it could then be used to launch an offensive aimed at cutting the two Novorossian Republics the Donetsk and Lugansk Peoples republics off from each other. Instead they were cut off and were forced into a sudden humiliating retreat while others perished trying to fight their way out. The victory itself was fairly predictable what was a surprise was that it was allowed to take place despite the diplomatic deal reached at Minsk. In my last article on Novorossia "Debaltsevo & Diplomacy" I predicted that only a sudden diplomatic surprise could save Ukraine from another major disaster but the victory at Debaltsevo happened even though a ceasefire was signed at Minsk. Of course this "Ceasefire" will prove to be just like the one last fall. In other words fighting will continue, the shelling of Novorossiyan civilians by the Ukrainian army will also continue but there won't be a major offensive again for a little while. However at least this Minsk 2.0 was not as disruptive to the Novorossiyan war effort as the last one which saved the Ukrainian army while in full rout and stopped the NAF from making some easy territorial gains. Because of Poroshenko's complete disconnection from reality Minsk 2.0 did nothing to save the Ukrainianian troops in Debaltsevo from a humiliating defeat although it doubtless saved a number of their lives. Actually footage surfaced in which the NAF were forced to battle one faction of the Ukrainian army determined to kill their own troops rather then allow them to be evacuated by the NAF after they had surrendered. Yet another reminder of the insanity that now rules Fascist Ukraine.
First I'll deal with the battle itself. Last Fall ignoring the Ceasefire lines Ukraine seized the town of Debaltsevo an important rail hub between Donetsk and Lugansk. They used the Ceasefire to dig in here as they did all along the lines of battle. An amusing detail both sides in this conflict use lord of the Rings imagery in their propaganda. Thus it was amusing to see the Ukrainian army living like real life hobbits digging out extensive underground homes for themselves with chimneys emerging from beneath the ground. The Kazzura You tube channel had a number of video's of Novorossiyan forces searching through their enemies former homes. In many cases their fires were still burning and it was clear the UA (Ukrainian Army) had fled only moments before. But I'm skipping ahead of course. The point is they were comfortably dug in for the winter. They had built up a massive artillery force to defend themselves and terrorize the locals.
However after capturing the Donetsk airport and smashing a massive Ukrainian counterattack the NAF (Novorossiyan Armed Forces) went on the offensive. Although the NAF advances were slow and costly on some fronts the attempt to cut off the Debaltsevo bridgehead made slow and steady progress. According to the indispensable Colonel Cassad After a failed offensive at Svetlodarsk the decisive blow came with the capture of Uglegorsk by the NAF. Logvinovo was captured by Olkhon's group. This became the lid of the "cauldron" and the defense was turned over to DPR special forces who managed in a fierce battle to repel the attempt by Ukraine to recapture Logvinovo and unblock the lid of the cauldron. Five of them were killed 30 wounded but they managed to destroy the mechanized forces sent to recapture the town. Trapped and cut off from supplies the UA forces trapped in the cauldron either surrendered leaving behind their tanks, artillery, and APC's or fought disastrous attempts at breaking through which were crushed. An interesting rumor swirling around was that a large number of the "Ukrainain" troops at Debaltsevo were actually foreign mercenaries and even special forces from various NATO countries. Supposedly this contributed to Hollande and Merkel's eagerness to reach an agreement in defiance of the US. Who knows. However there have definitely been western mercenaries operating in Ukraine since the beginning of the war and occasionally english speaking troops get caught on tape. Some of the abandoned Ukrainian equipment captured in Debaltsevo was covered in graffiti in english. Regardless of whether they were they were Ukrainians, mercenaries or NATO Special forces between one and three thousand lost their lives due to the disastrous decision to try to hold onto the Debaltsevo pocket when it was clearly encircled. Massive amounts of their equipment were captured including a bunch of fancy western equipment supplied by the US. Amusingly they transferred equipment from Iraq and crates of rockets marked property of the Iraqi government were among the loot. Novorossia also achieved a major propaganda victory. As with the capture of the Airport Ukraine responded by merely denying the obvious and claiming that there was no Debaltsevo cauldron and their troops were perfectly fine. Now they were faced with a massive embarrassment. Of course comically Poroshenko claimed that it was all a planned and quite ordinary retreat taking place after another series of glorious victories for Ukraine but I'm sure only the most delusional of his citizens were able to believe that. There was no disguising the massive victory.
I should mention that the DPR Prime Minister Alexander Zakharchenko was himself injured in the battle of Debaltsevo when he went down to the front line to inspect the fighting in person. Not many world leaders would risk such danger it should be said. After a brief hospital stay he has seemingly recovered. Also Graham Phillips was Recently warned by the British Foreign office to leave Ukraine clearly certain infamous pro Ukrainian media figures have been trying to get him in trouble and possibly even charged with terrorism for daring to report the truth from Novorossia. He assured his government that he only wore an NAF uniform so as not to attract attention and had only taken weapons training for educational purposes.
Now to turn our attention to the diplomatic game. Ukraine is only a part of a much greater struggle between Europe, the US, and Russia over the future of Europe. The US seized on the Ukraine as a means of forcing Europe to cut ties with Russia. This is from the US perspective great because it damages the economy of their competitors in Europe, and they hope will it force them to cement their ties with NATO meaning buy more US weapons. They hope to destabilize Russia by Isolating it and have launched an Economic war against it. They want Putin overthrown and eventually Russia itself broken up. Russia meanwhile hopes to use the Crisis to demonstrate yet again how crazy the Americans are. Their current style of war always seems to aim at producing a failed state (Inspiring Pepe Escobar to coin the phrase empire of Chaos) . With no end in sight to the current war there is no telling how far America's newest branch of it's "Arc of Crisis" will spread. If Europe doesn't come to it's senses after a decade or two it may start to experience Iraqification to coin a term. Europe "whole and free" could become a post-apocalyptic wasteland ruled by fascist warlords. Thus Lavrov must explain again and again to the europeans that the US is clearly creating a series of disasters where ever it intervenes Iraq Libya, Somalia, Syria, Afghanistan, Yemen, the list goes on and on. Now Ukraine is well on it's way to becoming a failed state and just like Iraq could begin to destabilize it's neighbors in the long term.
Actually I've recently been reading the Father of Geostrategy Halford J. Mackinder writing a hundred years ago right after World War 1. Back then the chief British goal was to prevent a possible German Russian alliance. Bismarck had succeeded in establishing one earlier but his advice was disregarded after he was forced to retire and instead they would be on opposite sides in both world wars. The German's well remember this fact and so with the end of the Cold War Germany and Russia began to form close business ties. It's an open secret that a faction in Germany secretly would like to ally with Russia. Together they would have the power to dominate all of Eurasia according to Mackinder. A strong Russia is already a major danger because it is located in what Mackinder calls the Heartland of Eurasia. It was equally dangerous to have a Russia under German domination. Russia's resources combined with German industry would have made them an unbeatable power. This incidentally is why Hitler wanted to conquer the Soviet Union. After that according to Geostrategic theory he really would have been able to dominate the world. However especially dangerous would be any alliance between Russia and Germany since free from worrying about being attacked from the East, Germany would have been able to dominate western Europe. A hundred years later the same game is being played. The US wants at all cost to keep Europe divided from Russia. Personally I think they should be worrying more about the way they have pushed Russia and China together but instead this is what they are worried about. The US plans to create a cold war to keep Russia and Europe Isolated from each other have created a backlash in Paris and Berlin. Observers like Pepe Escobar saw the Minsk 2 agreement as evidence that Europe is moving closer to the Russian position. The US made this obvious by announcing plans to ship weapons to Ukraine at the same time that Russia France and Germany were trying to arrange a peace deal. In other words they were clearly at that moment moving in opposite directions. Others like Joaquin Flores even believe that Minsk 2.0 was intentionally written so as to allow the Debaltsevo Cauldron to be cleared. What is certain is that Poroshenko's refusal to acknowledge the existence of the Debaltsevo Cauldron meant that the issue wasn't clearly addressed in the Minsk accords allowing the victory at Debaltsevo to occur despite the ceasefire. The NAF claimed that since the Debaltsevo was officially in territory under their control that they had the right to resist any attacks aimed at breaking out or breaking in. Personally I am a bit skeptical that France or Germany will be breaking from the US orbit any time soon. If they ever got up the courage We'd probably see a presidential plane crash, assassination, or even a western european color revolution.
The Minsk 2.0 agreements should be seen merely as another move in what will prove a very long diplomatic game over the war in Ukraine. Last time I obsessed over the details and worked myself into a panic over the various clauses that could be interpreted to mean a practical surrender. However the worst never occurred the NAF were never disarmed for instance. Thus this time instead I'll go by what happened in the last Ceasefire rather than by a bunch of protocols that will probably never be implemented. It is the final peace treaty that will be important and who knows how many years this war will last. The US has consistently shown they are only interested in escalating the situation further. All this ceasefire will mean is a slight decrease in activity until Ukraine regroups and launches it's next offensive. However so far the NAF have proven to be able not just to defend Novorossia but to score brilliant victories. So long as their Success holds out Novorossia will survive a symbol of resistance to Fascism and Imperialism. So i salute the brave defenders of Novorossia on their victory. And I salute the brave people of Novorossia stubbornly refusing to leave their homes despite all the hardships of this war from the shelling by the Ukrainian army to the hunger and cold.
It's always a good Idea to read imperial planners once in a while. Thus let me recommend "Democratic Ideals and Reality" by Halford John Mackinder. He will give you a major lesson in Geography, History, and Geo-Strategy. Brezinski used many of his ideas in the infamous "Grand Chessboard" I learned about him from Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya (See my June Alternative Media Spotlight 2) I also recently read "The Twenty Years Crisis 1919-1939" by Edward Hallet Carr which is an excellent introduction to geopolitics. His analysis of the inherent Hypocrisy of the Anglo-Americans is priceless and just as relevant today.
Colonel Cassad on the Debaltsevo Cauldron any one wanting a much more detailed account of the war in Ukraine should regularly read this blog translating his work into english.
Colonel Cassad on Graham Phillips
Pepe Escobar on Germany
Joaquin Flores is a brilliant but controversial analyst those obsessed with the Ukraine crisis should definitely see what he has to say. He is a sort of post-modern Machiavelli. His work does have it's sinister side. However he's just too interesting to ignore. In this essay he examines the scenario of a failed state in Ukraine
and here He discusses the new Minsk agreements
Zhakharchenko in Debaltsevo